चुनाव नतीजों, वैश्विक संकेतों से तय होगी बाजार की दिशा

पांच राज्यों के विधानसभा चुनावों के नतीजों, कच्चे तेल की कीमतों तथा अमेरिकी-चीन व्यापार विवाद बढ़ने के बीच वैश्विक बाजारों के रुख से इस सप्ताह शेयर बाजार की दिशा तय होगी। विशेषज्ञों ने यह राय जताई है। 

विशेषज्ञों का कहना है कि राजनीतिक मोर्चे पर घटनाक्रमों से शेयर बाजार में उतार-चढ़ाव देखने को मिल सकता है। 

शुक्रवार को कारोबार बंद होने के बाद आए ‘एक्जिट पोल्स’ के मद्देनजर भारतीय प्रतिभूति एवं विनिमय बोर्ड (सेबी) तथा शेयर बाजारों ने अपने निगरानी तंत्र को मजबूत किया है ताकि बाजार में किसी तरह की गड़बड़ी को रोका जा सके।

पांच राज्यों राजस्थान, मध्य प्रदेश, छत्तीसगढ़, तेलंगाना तथा मिजोरम विधानसभा चुनाव के नतीजे मंगलवार सुबह से आना शुरू होंगे।

मतदान बाद सर्वेक्षण में मध्य प्रदेश और छत्तीसगढ़ में भाजपा और कांग्रेस के बीच कड़े संघर्ष की उम्मीद जताई गई है। वहीं राजस्थान में कांग्रेस को जीतता दिखाया जा रहा है। 

इक्विटी 99 के वरिष्ठ शोध विश्लेषक राहुल शर्मा ने कहा, ‘‘चुनाव नतीजों, घरेलू और वृहद आर्थिक आंकड़ों तथा कच्चे तेल में उतार-चढ़ाव की वजह से निवेशकों को सतर्कता बरतनी होगी।’’ 

उन्होंने कहा कि पांच राज्यों में विधानसभा चुनाव के नतीजे 2019 के आम चुनाव की दृष्टि से महत्वपूर्ण हैं। 

एपिक रिसर्च के मुख्य कार्यपालक अधिकारी (सीईओ) मुस्तफा नदीम ने कहा कि ओपेक की बैठक और हुवावेई की वैश्विक सीएफओ की कनाडा में गिरफ्तारी से निवेशकों में बेचैनी है। इसके अलावा घरेलू मोर्चे पर चुनाव नतीजों से उतार-चढ़ाव और तेज हो सकता है।

ओपेक द्वारा कच्चे तेल का उत्पादन घटाने पर सहमत होने के बाद शुक्रवार को ब्रेंट कच्चा तेल दो प्रतिशत चढ़ गया। चीन की दूरसंचार कंपनी हुवावेई की सीईओ मेंग वानझाउ कंपनी के संस्थापक की पुत्री हैं। चीन ने वानझाउ को रिहा नहीं करने पर गंभीर नतीजों की चेतावनी दी है।

बीते सप्ताह बंबई शेयर बाजार का 30 शेयरों वाला सेंसेक्स 521.05 अंक या 1.43 प्रतिशत टूटकर 35,673.25 अंक पर आ गया। 
(सौ. भाषा)
(('बिना प्रोफेशनल ट्रेनिंग के शेयर बाजार जरूर जुआ है'
बचत, निवेश संबंधी beyourmoneymanager के लेख


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Rajanish Kant रविवार, 9 दिसंबर 2018
India’s projected economic growth momentum needs vibrant capital market:SEBI Chairman
फाइल

Chairman Ajay Tyagi's Speech at the 9th Financial Markets Summit of CII-

CII’s 9th Financial Markets Summit
“Innovation, Reforms & Adoption - Key to financing growth through Financial Markets”
Hotel Taj Vivanta President - Cuffe Parade - Mumbai
December 7, 2018 – 10:00 a.m.
Introductory Remarks
1. Ladies and Gentlemen, it gives me great pleasure to be present amidst you at the 9th Financial Market Summit of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). I thank the organizers for inviting me to deliver the inaugural address.
Current Market Scenario
2. Globally, capital markets have been quite volatile during the current year and are likely to remain so in coming times on account of various factors. These factors include uncertainty in oil prices; move towards normalization of monetary policies by central banks across jurisdictions, especially policy stance of US Fed; US-China trade dispute; and geo political risks.

3. These factors have also affected the Indian markets. As for domestic issues, NBFCs and HFCs have been facing tight liquidity since September 2018; though much has improved on account of various steps taken by RBI in providing systemic liquidity. Of course, the biggest bonanza for the Indian economy has been fall of about 30% in crude oil prices in the last one month. The macros of the economy have much improved since then.
4. The performance of Indian capital market compares favorably with the other major global economies on various parameters such as indices returns, volatility and currency movements. During the April to November period this year –
 Return of NIFTY has moved up by about 6.5%; though trailing the return of Dow Jones (8%), it is higher than the return of stock indices of other countries such as UK (- 1%), China (- 18%), Brazil (5.7%) and Japan (4.5%).
 The volatility in Indian equity market at 12% is among the lowest compared to major developed and emerging markets like UK (12%), US (16%), China (19%), Japan (17%), South Korea (14%), Hong Kong (19%) and Brazil (21%).

 Indian rupee saw a depreciation of around - 7% against the US Dollar, which is around the same level as the depreciation in the Japanese Yen (- 7.3%) but better than many other jurisdictions like China (- 10.81%), UK (- 10.10%), Europe (- 8.73%) and Brazil (- 16.85%).
Role of Capital Markets in supplementing Growth
5. Let me now dwell upon the role of capital markets in ably supplementing the growth of Indian economy by providing much needed funds to the corporate sector in a challenging credit environment.
6. Capital market, both debt and equity, has become increasingly important for India’s growth story. A record amount of Rs. 8.8 trillion was raised from Indian capital market during 2017-18 (through equity and debt) against the Rs. 7.7 trillion raised during 2016-17. Rs. 4.85 trillion has already been raised during the current financial year.

7. During FY17, fund raised from corporate bond market touched an all-time high of more than Rs. 6,70,000 Crores, surpassing the amount of bank credit disbursed during the same year. During FY18, about Rs. 6,05,000 Crores was raised. An amount of more than Rs. 3,16,000 Crores has already been raised as of November end this financial year.
8. The development of other alternate sources of funding like AIFs, REITs, InvITs and Municipal Bonds has also been gradually gaining prominence over time.
9. AIFs, today, are playing a vital role in providing alternate mode of financing to the economy. As of September 2018, a total of 476 AIFs are registered with SEBI with ‘cumulative commitment raised’ of around Rs. 2 Lakh Crores since 2013 and ‘total funds raised’ of more than Rs. 1 Lakh Crores for the same period. There has been a spurt in AIF activities in the past 2 / 3 years, with ‘cumulative commitment raised’ going up by 117 % from March 2016 to March 2017 and further 96 % from March 2017 to March 2018. For the same periods, the ‘total funds raised’ have gone up by 80 % and 108 % respectively.

10. REITs and InvITs are another set of fund raising vehicles. Changes made to the regulatory and tax framework for these instruments over the last 2-3 years are likely to show positive results going forward. 7 InvITs and 2 REITs have so far been registered with SEBI. 3 of the registered InvITs have already issued and listed more than Rs. 10,000 crores of units. Recently, one REIT has filed documents with SEBI to make an offering of more than Rs. 5,000 crores of units.
11. An active municipal bond market would help municipalities to finance a part of their requirement through the financial market. Pursuant to SEBI’s Municipal Bond framework of 2015 which was further amended in 2017, 2 municipal corporations - Pune and Greater Hyderabad - have together raised Rs. 400 crore though issuance of municipal bonds during 2017-18 and 3 municipal corporations - Indore, Greater Hyderabad and Bhopal - have together raised Rs. 470 crores so far during the current financial year. The data, however, suggests that our municipal bond market is still at a very nascent stage.
12. SEBI is in touch with market participants and if any further changes are warranted in the regulations relating to REITs, InvITs, or municipal bonds, appropriate action would be taken accordingly.

Some recent SEBI Initiatives
13. Let me now discuss some of the important initiatives taken by SEBI recently to facilitate growth in capital markets.
Rationalization of Processes
14. In order to reduce the time involved in issuance process and to reduce overall cost of fund raising, SEBI is working out a framework where it would be possible to list an issue on T+3 basis i.e. listing within 3 days after an issue closes. As for the processing of IPO documents by SEBI, the average time for the same has reduced from 78 days to less than 60 days during the last 2 years.
Further deepening of Corporate Bond Market
15. Some significant measures taken recently by SEBI to further deepen the corporate bond market include:
i. Easing the process for public issuance of corporate bonds, in terms of reduction in mandatory costs and reduction of timelines from issuance to listing.

ii. Nudging large corporates with “AA” rating and above to access 25% of their incremental borrowings from the bond market.
iii. Operationalizing corporate repo platform on stock exchanges.
Review of Regulations on Corporate Restructuring
16. Based on inputs received from various stakeholders and through wider consultations, SEBI reviewed the regulations governing aspects relating to ICDR, SAST, Buyback and Delisting regulations. The recent changes to ICDR regulations, inter alia, include rationalization of disclosure requirement, rationalized definition of promoter group and aspects which would further enhance overall ease of doing business.
Corporate Governance
17. Taking into consideration the recommendations of Kotak Committee, along with public comments thereon, SEBI has taken several decisions on measures to further improve the corporate governance in India.

18. For instance, SEBI, inter alia, enhanced the focus on independent directors, prescribed separation of CEO/ MD and Chairperson; enhanced role of Audit Committee, Nomination and Remuneration Committee and Risk Management Committee; strengthened approval and disclosure of related party transactions (RPTs); mandated consolidated quarterly results and secretarial audit for listed entities and their material unlisted subsidiaries.
Framework for Direct Listing
19. The extant legal framework in India, hitherto, does not permit direct listing of Indian companies on foreign stock exchanges and vice versa. An Expert Committee constituted by SEBI on this aspect has recently submitted its Report to SEBI, which is on SEBI’s website for public comments.
20. With so many Captains of the industry present today in this Forum, let me take this opportunity to encourage you to peruse the Report diligently and offer your comments within the specified time-frame.

21. Let me conclude by reiterating that a vibrant capital market has to play an increasingly pivotal role to facilitate fund mobilization for sustaining India’s projected economic growth momentum. This role becomes even more important, given the stress on the banking sector.

Rajanish Kant शुक्रवार, 7 दिसंबर 2018
India's CAD in Q2, 2018 (2.9% of GDP vs 1.1% of GDP Y-o-Y): RBI
Developments in India’s Balance of Payments during the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2018-19
Preliminary data on India’s balance of payments (BoP) for the second quarter (Q2), i.e., July-September 2018-19, are presented in Statements I (BPM6 format)and II (old format).
Key Features of India’s BoP in Q2 of 2018-19
  • India’s current account deficit (CAD) at US$ 19.1 billion (2.9 per cent of GDP) in Q2 of 2018-19 increased from US$ 6.9 billion (1.1 per cent of GDP) in Q2 of 2017-18 and US$ 15.9 billion (2.4 per cent of GDP) in the preceding quarter.
  • The widening of the CAD on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis was primarily on account of a higher trade deficit at US$ 50.0 billion as compared with US$ 32.5 billion a year ago.
  • Net services receipts increased by 10.2 per cent on a y-o-y basis mainly on the back of a rise in net earnings from software and financial services.
  • Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, amounted to US$ 20.9 billion, increasing by 19.8 per cent from their level a year ago.
  • In the financial account, net foreign direct investment at US$ 7.9 billion in Q2 of 2018-19 moderated from US$ 12.4 billion in Q2 of 2017-18.
  • Portfolio investment recorded net outflow of US$ 1.6 billion in Q2 of 2018-19 – as compared with an inflow of US$ 2.1 billion in Q2 last year – on account of net sales in both the debt and equity markets.
  • Net receipts on account of non-resident deposits increased to US$ 3.3 billion in Q2 of 2018-19 from US$ 0.7 billion a year ago.
  • In Q2 of 2018-19, there was a depletion of US$ 1.9 billion of the foreign exchange reserves (on BoP basis) as against an accretion of US$ 9.5 billion in Q2 of 2017-18 (Table 1).
BoP during April-September 2018 (H1 of 2018-19)
  • The CAD increased to 2.7 per cent of GDP in H1 of 2018-19 from 1.8 per cent in H1 of 2017-18 on the back of widening of the trade deficit.
  • India’s trade deficit increased to US$ 95.8 billion in H1 of 2018-19 from US$ 74.4 billion in H1 of 2017-18.
  • Net invisible receipts were higher in H1 of 2018-19 mainly due to increase in net services earnings and private transfer receipts.
  • Net FDI inflows in H1 of 2018-19 moderated to US$ 17.7 billion from US$ 19.6 billion in H1 of 2017-18.
  • Portfolio investment recorded a net outflow of US$ 9.8 billion in H1 of 2018-19 as against an inflow of US$ 14.5 billion a year ago.
  • In H1 of 2018-19, there was a depletion of US$ 13.2 billion of the foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis).
Table 1: Major Items of India's Balance of Payments
(US$ Billion)
 July-September 2018 PJuly-September 2017April-September 2018-19PApril-September 2017-18
 CreditDebitNetCreditDebitNetCreditDebitNetCreditDebitNet
A. Current Account160.0179.1-19.1145.5152.4-6.9315.7350.7-35.0285.4307.3-21.9
1. Goods83.4133.4-50.076.1108.5-32.5166.8262.6-95.8149.2223.6-74.4
    Of which:            
        POL12.135.2-23.19.023.7-14.623.569.9-46.516.546.5-30.0
2. Services50.129.820.247.429.018.498.359.338.993.356.636.7
3. Primary Income5.614.3-8.74.513.0-8.611.025.5-14.69.223.6-14.4
4. Secondary Income20.91.519.417.51.815.739.73.336.433.73.530.2
B. Capital Account and Financial Account131.1112.918.2147.1139.77.4273.7238.834.9302.8279.922.9
  Of which:            
    Change in Reserves (Increase (-)/Decrease (+))1.90.01.90.09.5-9.513.20.013.20.020.9-20.9
C. Errors & Omissions (-) (A+B)0.9 0.9 0.4-0.40.1 0.1 1.0-1.0
P: Preliminary
Note: Total of subcomponents may not tally with aggregate due to rounding off.

(स्रोत-आरबीआई)
(('बिना प्रोफेशनल ट्रेनिंग के शेयर बाजार जरूर जुआ है'
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Rajanish Kant
Cabinet approves Agriculture Export Policy, 2018
The Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has approved the Agriculture Export Policy, 2018.  The Cabinet has also approved the proposal for establishment of Monitoring Framework at Centre with Commerce as the nodal Department with representation from various line Ministries/Departments and Agencies and representatives of concerned State Governments, to oversee the implementation of Agriculture Export Policy.
          The Government has come out with a policy to double farmers’ income by 2022. Exports of agricultural products would play a pivotal role in achieving this goal. In order to provide an impetus to agricultural exports, the Government has come out with a comprehensive “Agriculture Export Policy” aimed at doubling the agricultural exports and integrating Indian farmers and agricultural products with the global value chains. The Agriculture Export Policy has the following vision:         
          “Harness export potential of Indian agriculture, through suitable policy   instruments, to make India global power in agriculture and raise farmers’     income.”
Objectives:
Objectives of the Agriculture Export Policy are as under:
  • To double agricultural exports from present ~US$ 30+ Billion to ~US$ 60+ Billion by 2022 and reach US$ 100 Billion in the next few years thereafter, with a stable trade policy regime.
  • To diversify our export basket, destinations and boost high value and value added agricultural exports including focus on perishables.
  • To promote novel, indigenous, organic, ethnic, traditional and non-traditional Agri products exports.
  • To provide an institutional mechanism for pursuing market access, tackling barriers and deal with sanitary and phyto-sanitary issues.
  • To strive to double India’s share in world agri exports by integrating with global value chain at the earliest.
  • Enable farmers to get benefit of export opportunities in overseas market.
Elements of Agriculture Export Policy:
          The recommendations in the Agriculture Export Policy have been organised in two categories – Strategic and Operational – as detailed below:

Strategic

Policy measures
Infrastructure and logistics support
Holistic approach to boost exports
Greater involvement of State Governments in agri exports

Focus on Clusters

Promoting value-added exports

Marketing and promotion of “Brand India
Operational
Attract private investments into production and processing

Establishment of strong quality regimen

Research & Development

Miscellaneous

Rajanish Kant गुरुवार, 6 दिसंबर 2018