Results for "Monsoon"
इस वर्ष मानसून के सामान्य रहने की उम्मीद

भारतीय मौसम विज्ञान विभाग ने इस वर्ष मानसून के सामान्य रहने की उम्मीद जताई

दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून सीजन वर्षा के लिए प्रथम चरण लंबी दूरी का पूर्वानुमान जारी किया

मानसून के 1 जून को केरल में तिरुवनंतपुरम पहुंचने की उम्मीद है

भारतीय मौसम विज्ञान विभाग (आईएमडी) ने इस वर्ष मानसून के सामान्य रहने की उम्मीद की घोषणा की।आईएमडी ने मानसून के लिए अपने प्रथम चरण लंबी दूरी पूर्वानुमान (एलआरएफ) में कहा, “दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून (जून से सितंबर) सीजन की वर्षा कुल मिला कर पूरे देश के लिए सामान्य (96-104 प्रतिशत) रहने का अनुमान है।”
पृथ्वी विज्ञान मंत्रालय में सचिव डॉ. एम. राजीवन ने 2020 के लिए दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून सीजन वर्षा के लिए आईएमडी के प्रथम चरण लंबी दूरी का पूर्वानुमान जारी किया। इस अवसर पर, आईएमडी के महानिदेशक डा एम. मोहापात्रा भी उपस्थित थे।
आईएमडी ने ‘भारत भर में दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून के आरंभ/प्रगति एवं वापसी की नई सामान्य तिथियां’भी जारी कीं।
डॉ. राजीवन ने कहा कि मात्रा के लिहाज से दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून (जून से सितंबर) सीजन की वर्षा के 5 प्रतिशत की मामूली त्रृटि के साथ लंबी अवधि औसत (एलपीए) का 100 प्रतिशत रहने की उम्मीद है। 1961-2020 की अवधि  के लिए कुल मिला कर पूरे देश में सीजन की वर्षा का एलपीए 88 सीएम है।
उन्होंने कहा कि, “अच्छी बात यह है कि ऐसा अनुमान है कि वर्षा की कमी 9 प्रतिशत होगी। यह पूर्वानुमान सांख्यिकी माडल पर आधारित है, यह संकेत देता है कि देश में एक सामान्य मानसून रहेगा।”
उन्होंने कहा कि आईएमडी द्वितीय चरण पूर्वानुमान के एक हिस्से के रूप में मई के अंतिम सप्ताह/जून 2020 के प्रथम सप्ताह में अद्यतन पूर्वानुमान जारी करेगा।
डॉ. राजीवन ने बताया कि, ‘न्यूट्रल एल नीनो साउदर्न आस्लिेशन (ईएनएसओे) स्थितियां प्रशांत महासागर और न्यूट्रल इंडियन ओसन डिपोल (आईओडी) स्थितियां हिन्द महासागर के ऊपर व्याप्त हो रही हैं। कुछ जलवायु मोडल पूर्वानुमानों से संकेत मिलता है कि इन स्थितियों के आगामी मानसून सीजन के दौरान बनी रहने की उम्मीद है।’उन्होंने कहा कि, ‘चूंकि प्रशांत महासागर और हिन्द महासागर के ऊपर समुद्री सतह तापमान (एसएसटी) भारतीय मानसून पर मजबूत प्रभाव के लिए जाने जाते हैं, आईएमडी सर्तकतापूर्वक प्रशांत महासागर और हिन्द महासागर के ऊपर समुद्री सतह स्थितियों के उद्भव की निगरानी कर रहा है।’
डॉ. राजीवन ने बताया कि ला नीनो या पूर्व-मध्य प्रशांत महासागर में सामान्य से ठंडी समुद्री सतह पारंपरिक रूप से बेहतर मानसून वर्षा और भारत में ठंडी हवाओं से जुड़ी है जबकि एल नीनो देश में सामान्य से नीचे वर्षा के साथ जुड़ा है। दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून जो देश की कृषि आधारित अर्थव्यवस्था को पूरा करता है, सामान्य रूप से जून के प्रथम सप्ताह में पहले केरल के दक्षिणी सिरे तक पहुंचता है और सितंबर तक राजस्थान से वापस पीछे हट जाता है।
मॉनसून के 1 जून को केरल के तिरुवनंतपुरम तक पहुंचने की उम्मीद है। मॉनसून विद्यमान सामान्य तिथियों की तुलना में महाराष्ट्र, गुजरात, मध्य प्रदेश, छत्तीसगढ़, तेलंगाना, आंध्र प्रदेश, ओडिशा, झारखंड, बिहार जैसे राज्यों एवं उत्तर प्रदेश के हिस्सों में 3-7 दिन की देरी से पहुंचेगा।
तथापि, सुदूर उत्तर पश्चिम भारत में, मानसून अब थोड़ा पहले15 जुलाई की वर्तमान तारीख की तुलना में 8 जुलाईको आता है।
मानसून के 15 अक्तूबर को दक्षिण भारत से वापस हो जाने की उम्मीद है।
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today announced that it expects monsoon rainfall to be normal this year. "Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96-104%)," the IMD said in its first stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) for monsoons.
Addressing a press conference through video link, Secretary of Ministry of Earth Sciences Dr. M. Rajeevan released the IMD’s Long Range Forecast for the 2020 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall.  Director General of IMD, Dr. M. Mohapatra was also present.
The IMD also issued the ‘New Normal Dates of Onset/Progress and Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon Over India’.
DR. Rajeevan  said that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
"Good news is that it is estimated that the deficient rainfall will be 9 per cent. This forecast is based on the statistical model, it suggests that we will have a normal monsoon", he said.
He said, IMD will issue the updated forecasts in the last week of May/first week of June 2020 as a part of the second stage forecast.
Dr. Rajeevan pointed out that “ Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. Some climate model forecasts indicate these conditions are likely to persist during the ensuing monsoon season”. “As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over the Pacific and the Indian oceans,” he added. 
Dr. Rajeevan said that La Nina, or cooler-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with better monsoon rains and colder winters in India while El Nino is associated with below-normal rainfall in the country.
The southwest monsoon season, that replenishes the country's farm-dependent economy, first hits the southern tip of Kerala usually in the first week of June and retreats from Rajasthan by September.
Monsoons are expected to hit Kerala's Thiruvananthapuram on June 1. In states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Telegana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh, monsoon will be delayed by 3-7 days compared to the existing normal dates.
However, over extreme northwest India, the monsoon arrives now little earlier, on 8th July compared to the existing date of 15th July.
Monsoons are expected to withdraw in south India on October 15.
Given below are details:

Summary of the Forecast for the 2020 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
  1. Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96-104%).
  2. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.  The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
  3. Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean.  Some climate modelforecasts indicatethese conditions are likely to persist during the ensuing monsoon season.  However, a few other global climate models indicate possibility of development of weak La Nina conditions over the Pacific Ocean during thesecond half of the season.
As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over the Pacific and the Indian oceans.
IMD will issue the updated forecasts in the last week of May/ first week of June2020 as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four broad geographical regions of India will also be issued.
1.         Background
India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in May/June. These forecasts are prepared using the state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) that is critically reviewed and improved regularly through in-house research activities.  Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate experimental forecasts. For this purpose, the latest version of the Monsoon Mission CFS (MMCFS) model was implemented in January 2017 at the Office of Climate Research and Services, IMD, Pune.
IMD’s SEFS model for the April forecast uses the following 5 predictors that require data upto March.
S. No                            Predictor                                                                                   Period
1          The   Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Gradient between
             North Atlantic  and  North Pacific                                                           December + January
2          Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST                                                        February
3          East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure                                                       February + March
4          Northwest Europe Land Surface Air Temperature                                     January
5          Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume                                                   February + March
2.         Forecast For the 2020 Southwest monsoon Season (June–September) rainfall over the Country as a whole
2a.        Forecast based on the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)
For generating the forecast for the 2020 southwest Monsoon season rainfall atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions during March 2020 were used.  The forecast was computed as the average of 51 ensemble members.
The forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that there is a high probability (70%) for 2020 monsoon rainfall to be above normal to excess (More than 104% of LPA).
2b.        Forecast Based on the Operational Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System
a)         Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.  The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
(b)The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below:
Category           Rainfall Range(% of LPA)           Forecast Probability (%)        Climatological Probability (%)
Deficient                       < 90                                                      9                                  16
Below Normal                90 - 96                                                  20                                 17
Normal                          96 -104                                                 41                                 33
Above Normal                104 -110                                                21                                 16
Excess                         > 110                                                    9                                  17
           
The statistical model suggests high probability (41%) for 2020 monsoon rainfall to be normal (96-104% of LPA).
3.         Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Conditions in the equatorial Pacific & Indian Oceans
            Currently, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from some global climate models indicate neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon season. However, few other global climate models including MMCFS indicate possibility of development of weak LaNina conditions over the Pacific Ocean. It may be mentioned that the global climate model predictions prior to and during the spring season generally have noticeable uncertainty due to spring barrier in the seasonal predictability.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecast from the MMCFS and global models together indicate neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist during the season.
New Normal Dates of Onset/Progress and Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon over India

The present normal monsoon onset and withdrawal dates are based on records of only a few stations (149 stations) during the period 1901-1940.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has now revised the normal onset and withdrawal dates based on recent data. The normal dates of onset are revised based on data during 1961-2019 and normal dates of withdrawal are revised based on data during 1971-2019.

IMD has designed new objective criteria for defining monsoon onset over the entire country based on daily gridded (1ox1o) rainfall data set. The new objective criteria used for deciding  monsoon onset/progress dates are designed so as to closely simulate IMD’s operational onset dates. However, the new withdrawal dates are fixed using the IMD’s operational withdrawal dates during 1971-2019.
Monsoon onset over Kerala remains the same, i.e., 1 June. However, new monsoon advance dates over the states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Telegana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh are delayed by 3-7 days compared to existing normal dates. However, over extreme northwest India, the monsoon arrives now little earlier, on 8th July compared to the existing date of 15th July. There are however appreciable changes in the monsoon withdrawal dates, especially over Northwest and Central India. Monsoon withdraws from NW India almost 7-14 days later from the existing dates. There is no change in the final withdrawal date over south India, i.e., 15th October.

These new dates are relevant for many applications like agriculture, water and power management etc.

The new and older onset and withdrawal dates are shown in Fig 1.

Table -1 shows new and old onset and withdrawal dates of few major cities in India. IMD will start using these new dates from 1 June 2020. IMD will release a very detailed report by 15 May 2020.

Existing & New Dates of Normal Monsoon Onset/progress
Fig.1(a) Map showing the new (black solid) normal dates of monsoon onset/progress over the country based on the new objective rainfall criteria for the base period of 1961-2019 along with existing normal dates (red dotted). 


Existing & New Dates of Normal Monsoon Withdrawal




Fig.1(b) Map showing the new (black solid) normal dates of monsoon withdrawal over the country based on the new objective rainfall criteria for the base period of 1971-2019 along with existing normal dates (red dotted). 

Table-1: Normal monsoon onset (1961-2019) dates based on new rainfall criteria and withdrawal (1971-2019) dates based on the operational data over a few major cities of the country.

Sr. No.
Station Name
Normal Monsoon
Onset/ Progress Date
Normal Monsoon Withdrawal Date
New
(1961-2019)
Existing
(1901-1940)
New
(1971-2019)
Existing
(1901-1940)
1
Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 
01-Jun
01-Jun
*
*
2
Chennai, Tamil Nadu
04-Jun
01-Jun
*
*
3
Udupi, Karnataka 
04-Jun
05-Jun
*
*
4
Panjim, Goa, 
07-Jun
07-Jun
14-Oct
10-Oct
5
Gangawati, Karnataka
06-Jun
05-Jun
15-Oct
*
6
Ongole, Andhra Pradesh 
08-Jun
04-Jun
*
*
7
Hyderabad
08-Jun
07-Jun
14-Oct
15-Oct
8
Machilipatnam, Andhra Pradesh 
13-Jun
05-Jun
*
*
9
Kolhapur, Maharashtra 
09-Jun
09-Jun
11-Oct
01-Oct
10
Satara, Maharashtra 
10-Jun
09-Jun
09-Oct
30-Sep
11
Pune, Maharashtra 
10-Jun
09-Jun
11-Oct
06-Oct
12
Jagdalpur,Chhattisgarh
13-Jun
09-Jun
13-Oct
15-Oct
13
Vizag, Andhra Pradesh 
11-Jun
09-Jun
14-Oct
15-Oct
14
Mumbai, Maharashtra 
11-Jun
10-Jun
08-Oct
29-Sep
15
Ahmednagar, Maharashtra 
12-Jun
10-Jun
08-Oct
29-Sep
16
Cuttack, Odisha
12-Jun
11-Jun
12-Oct
13-Oct
17
Puri, Odisha 
13-Jun
12-Jun
12-Oct
13-Oct
18
Surat, Gujarat
19-Jun
13-Jun
2-Oct
25-Sep
19
Jalgaon, Maharashtra 
18-Jun
13-Jun
6-Oct
27-Sep
20
Nagpur,  Maharshtra
15-Jun
13-Jun
6-Oct
6-Oct
21
Raipur, Chhattisgarh
16-Jun
13-Jun
9-Oct
10-Oct
22
Ahmedabad
21-Jun
14-Jun
30-Sep
22-Sep
23
Khandwa, Madhya Pradesh 
20-Jun
14-Jun
3-Oct
25-Sep
24
Bilaspur, Chhattisgarh
16-Jun
14-Jun
7-Oct
7-Oct
25
Jamshedpur, Jharkhand
14-Jun
12-Jun
10-Oct
12-Oct
26
Kolkata, West Bengal 
11-Jun
10-Jun
12-Oct
14-Oct
27
Aizawl, Mizoram
5-Jun
1-Jun
14-Oct
15-Oct
28
Bhuj, Gujarat
30-Jun
21-Jun
26-Sep
15-Sep
29
Surendranagar,Gujarat
26-Jun
15-Jun
27-Sep
20-Sep
30
Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh 
22-Jun
15-Jun
30-Sep
20-Sep
31
Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh 
20-Jun
15-Jun
5-Oct
6-Oct
32
Agartala, Tripura 
4-Jun
1-Jun
14-Oct
15-Oct
33
Shillong
5-Jun
1-Jun
14-Oct
15-Oct
34
Imphal, Manipur
5-Jun
1-Jun
15-Oct
15-Oct
35
Gaya, Bihar
16-Jun
12-Jun
8-Oct
12-Oct
36
Siliguri, West Bengal 
8-Jun
9-Jun
12-Oct
14-Oct
37
Tripura
4-Jun
2-Jun
14-Oct
14-Oct
38
Guwahati, Assam
4-Jun
2-Jun
14-Oct
15-Oct
39
Dimapur, Nagaland
4-Jun
2-Jun
14-Oct
15-Oct
40
Ajmer, Rajasthan
1-Jul
23-Jun
21-Sep
12-Sep
41
Dholpur, Rajasthan
28-Jun
20-Jun
29-Sep
25-Sep
42
Lucknow
23-Jun
20-Jun
3-Oct
30-Sep
43
Azamgarh, Uttar Pradesh 
20-Jun
17-Jun
4-Oct
5-Oct
44
Chhapra, Bihar
18-Jun
13-Jun
6-Oct
10-Oct
45
Gangtok, Sikkim, 
10-Jun
10-Jun
9-Oct
14-Oct
46
Jalpaiguri, West Bengal 
7-Jun
9-Jun
12-Oct
14-Oct
47
Tezpur, Assam
5-Jun
3-Jun
14-Oct
14-Oct
48
Jaisalmar, Rajasthan
8-Jul
15-Jul
17-Sep
1-Sep
49
Jaipur, Rajasthan
1-Jul
23-Jun
22-Sep
12-Sep
50
Agra, Uttar Pradesh 
30-Jun
23-Jun
14-Sep
22-Sep
51
Itanagar, Arunachal Pradesh
5-Jun
4-Jun
14-Oct
14-Oct
52
Dibrugarh, Assam
4-Jun
3-Jun
14-Oct
14-Oct
53
Bikaner, Rajasthan
5-Jul
13-Jul
17-Sep
1-Sep
54
Churu, Rajasthan
4-Jul
6-Jul
19-Sep
10-Sep
55
Sonepat, Haryana
30-Jun
30-Jun
23-Sep
15-Sep
56
New Delhi
27-Jun
23-Jun
25-Sep
22-Sep
57
Bhiwani, Haryana
3-Jul
6-Jul
21-Sep
12-Sep
58
Pithoragarh, Uttarakhand
20-Jun
21-Jun
28-Sep
27-Sep
59
Shimla, Himachal Pradesh
24-Jun
23-Jun
24-Sep
22-Sep
60
Jalandhar, Punjab 
28-Jun
13-Jul
21-Sep
10-Sep
61
Chandigarh 
26-Jun
1-Jul
22-Sep
22-Sep
62
Jammu, 
28-Jun
13-Jul
21-Sep
20-Sep
63
Srinagar-Kyonon Road, Ladakh
22-Jun
22-Jun
24-Sep
30-Sep
64
Ladakh, Ladakh
23-Jun
26-Jun
23-Sep
29-Sep
*SW Monsoon retreats from the area and Northeast monsoon gets established



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Rajanish Kant बुधवार, 15 अप्रैल 2020