Results for "सितंबर तिमाही के GDP आंकड़े"
Q2 FY 18 GDP@6.3%, Q2 FY18 GVA@6.1%
Estimates of gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2017-18
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2017-18, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

2.          The details of the estimates of GDP for Q2 of 2017-18 are presented below.

I.          ESTIMATEOF GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA)  BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a)   Aconstan(2011-2012prices

3.         GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of 2017-18   is estimated at `31.66 lakh crore, as against `29.79 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.3 percent.  Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-12) prices for Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at `29.18 lakh crore, as against `27.51 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.1 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

4.         The economic activities which registered growth of over 6.0 percent in Q2 of  2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17 are ‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services and ‘trade, hotels, transport & communication and services related to broadcasting’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘construction’ 'financial, insurance, real estate and professional services' and ‘Public administration, defence & other services’ is estimated to be 1.7 percent, 5.5 percent, 2.6 per cent, 5.7 percent  and 6.0 percent respectively, during this period.

5.  Industry analysis

            The second quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Kharif season of 2017-18 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), abridged financial results of listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG). Performance of key indicators of sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period July-September 2017 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during July-September 2017 based on data received from BSE/NSE has been taken into account.  With the introduction of  Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation  include  non-GST revenue  and GST revenue  based on GSTR filings  as provided by Central Board of Excise and Customs, Department of Revenue, Ministry of  Finance. Data used for Q2 of 2017-18 is based on data reported as on date. Approach adopted for compiling Taxes on products at current and constant prices is given in the Annexure

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

5.1       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 1.7 percent as compared to growth of 4.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. According  to the information  furnished  by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  and Cooperation  (DAC),  which  has been  used  in  compiling  the  estimate  of  GVA from agriculture in Q2 of  2017-18, the production of  food grains  during  the  Kharif  season of agriculture year 2017-18 declined by 2.8 percent as compared to the growth of 10.7 percent during the same period in 2016-17. Around 52.5 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of around 3.8 percent in Q2 of 2017-18.

Mining and quarrying

5.2.      Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by 5.5 percent as compared to decline of 1.3 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and IIP mining registered growth rates of  8.6 per cent, (-)0.7 percent  and 7.2percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to (-)4.2 per cent, (-)3.3 percent and (-)1.5 percent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17. 

Manufacturing

5.3       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 7.0 percent as compared to growth of 7.7 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 70 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE/NSE is 11.4 percent at current prices during Q2 of 2017-18. The growth in quasi - corporate and unorganized segment (which includes individual proprietorships and partnerships and khadi & village Industries has a share of around 20 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing.  IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of 2.2 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to growth of 5.5 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.


Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services

5.4       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector grew by 7.6 percent as compared to growth of  5.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.   The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 6.1 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 3.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.

Construction

5.5       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 2.6 percent as compared to growth of 4.3 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of (-) 0.4 percent and 4.1 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 3.4 percent and 6.5 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.

Trade, Hotels and Transport & Communication and Services related to broadcasting

5.6.                        Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew by 9.9 percent as compared to growth of 7.7 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. GVA from Trade sector is is estimated using an index of  turnoverbased on  Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST.  Therefore, a comparable estimate of  turnover based on Sales tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is given in the  Annexure.  Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of 5.0 per cent and (-) 2.9 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18.  In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled at major ports and sales of commercial vehicles registered growth rates of 13.5 percent, 18.9 percent, 1.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

5.7       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew 5.7 percent as compared to growth of 7.0 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.  Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 75 percent. The key indicator of this sector is the quarterly growth of corporate sector for  computer related activities which  is estimated from available data of listed companies.  The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 8.6 per cent, and 6.8 per cent, respectively as on September 2017 as against growth of  10.8 percent and 10.1 percent respectively  as on September 2016.


Public administration and defence and other services

5.8       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew by 6.0 percent as compared to growth of 9.5 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government revenue expenditure net of interest payments excluding subsidies grew by 0.8 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 20.8 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.

(b)                  Acurrenprices

6.        GDP is derived by adding taxes on products, net of subsidies on products, to GVA at basic prices. The taxes on products include both GST and non GST Revenue of Central and State Governments.

GDP at current prices in Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at ` 40.22 lakh crore, as against 36.76 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 9.4 percent. GVA at basic price at current prices in Q2 of 2017-18, is estimated at ` 36.40 lakh crore, as against `33.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing an increase of 8.6 per cent.

(c)  Price indices used as deflators
7.         The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has registered a growth of 3.4 percent, 2.1 percent, 2.4 per cent, and 2.6 percent respectively whereas electricity declined by 1.6 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17. The consumer price index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to growth of 5.2 percent during Q2 of 2016-17.

II.    ESTIMATEOEXPENDITUREOGDP
8.                                    The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure
9.                                    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `23.05 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `21.07 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `17.06 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against  `16.02 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 57.3 per cent and 53.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.3 per cent and 53.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2016-17.Growth rates of   PFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 9.4 percent and 6.5 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 11.9 percent and 7.9 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure
10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `5.43 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `5.07 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.96 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `3.81 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 13.5 per cent and 12.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 13.8 percent and 12.8 percent each in Q2 of 2016-17.Growth rates of GFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 7.1 percent and  4.1 percentrespectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 21.2 percent and 16.5 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation
11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `10.61 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `9.98 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `9.15 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `8.74 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 26.4 percent and 28.9 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 27.1 percent and 29.4 percent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17. Growth rates of GFCF at current and constant prices are estimated  at  6.3 percent and  4.7 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 2.9 percent and 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2016-17.

12.       Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and  during April-September of 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2017 (Q3 of 2017-18) will be on 28.02.2018.


STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES  
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at 2011-12 prices)
 
Industry
(`in crore)
Percentage change
GVA at Basic Price
over previous year
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2016-17
2017-18
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing
371468
306694
380833
319173
389732
324521
2.5
4.1
2.3
1.7
2.mining & quarrying
87294
66214
86485
65368
85911
68967
-0.9
-1.3
-0.7
5.5
3.manufacturing
458128
464719
507223
500655
513139
535542
10.7
7.7
1.2
7.0
4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services
55324
57912
61018
60850
65289
65467
10.3
5.1
7.0
7.6
5.construction
222464
208855
229321
217790
233919
223539
3.1
4.3
2.0
2.6
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting
474733
466888
516958
503064
574261
553021
8.9
7.7
11.1
9.9
7.financial, insurance, real estate &professional services
594754
670123
650607
717077
692522
757968
9.4
7.0
6.4
5.7
8.Public administration, defence& other services
293784
334639
318963
366583
349356
388531
8.6
9.5
9.5
6.0
GVA at Basic Price
2557949
2576044
2751407
2750560
2904128
2917556
7.6
6.8
5.6
6.1


STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP
 IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at 2011-12 prices)

Item
(`in crore)
RATES OF GDP (%)
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2016-17
2017-18
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
1.     Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
1453347
1484050
1575613
1601797
1680481
1705978
53.6
53.8
54.0
53.9
2.     Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
286327
326759
333761
380561
391080
396284
11.3
12.8
12.6
12.5
3.     Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
849973
848892
912768
874494
927506
915211
31.0
29.4
29.8
28.9
4.     Change in Stocks
67160
68126
73118
72171
73979
77000
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
5.     Valuables
40244
46978
34687
36783
105716
75408
1.2
1.2
3.4
2.4
6.     Exports
583423
599072
594947
608293
602159
615706
20.2
20.4
19.4
19.4
7.     Less Imports
623959
656986
620649
631865
703827
679194
21.1
21.2
22.6
21.5
8.     Discrepancies
69359
53206
37601
36584
33052
59271
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.9
 GDP
2725873
2770097
2941846
2978817
3110145
3165664
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)


7.9
7.5
5.7
6.3








STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at current prices)

Industry  
(`in crore)
Percentage change
GVA at Basic Price
over previous year
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2016-17
2017-18
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing
487463
411860
535817
453016
537540
469624
9.9
10.0
0.3
3.7
2.mining & quarrying
89202
62948
74069
57256
82270
64661
-17.0
-9.0
11.1
12.9
3.manufacturing
510270
513542
561546
557478
583080
610611
10.0
8.6
3.8
9.5
4.electricity,gas,water  supply & other utility services
80345
83635
84781
85543
91306
90509
5.5
2.3
7.7
5.8
5.construction
257820
240308
263908
253148
275466
266501
2.4
5.3
4.4
5.3
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication
 & services related to broadcasting
554319
542097
599817
589846
686195
661949
8.2
8.8
14.4
12.2
7.financial, insurance, real estate &   professional services
690702
774052
768015
856073
837108
928437
11.2
10.6
9.0
8.5
8.Public administration, defence& other services
380690
435775
428746
499351
484492
548129
12.6
14.6
13.0
9.8
GVA at Basic Price
3050811
3064217
3316698
3351712
3577457
3640421
8.7
9.4
7.9
8.6


STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP 
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at current prices)

Item
(`in crore)
RATES OF GDP (%)
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2016-17
2017-18
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
1.     Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
1823568
1883076
2042054
2106743
2226885
2304645
57.4
57.3
57.3
57.3
2.     Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
357350
418342
433530
507156
519320
543314
12.2
13.8
13.4
13.5
3.     Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
978519
969396
1036732
997746
1068642
1060787
29.2
27.1
27.5
26.4
4.     Change in Stocks
74613
75091
81641
81050
83610
87945
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
5.     Valuables
44737
50605
37948
44450
108658
78119
1.1
1.2
2.8
1.9
6.     Exports
671293
687100
687415
708729
708680
733272
19.3
19.3
18.2
18.2
7.     Less Imports
757976
795275
746878
765671
860680
840618
21.0
20.8
22.2
20.9
8.     Discrepancies
28174
38139
-17506
-4413
28666
54871
-0.5
-0.1
0.7
1.4
GDP
3220278
3326474
3554938
3675789
3883781
4022335
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)


10.4
10.5
9.3
9.4








STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at 2011-12 prices)

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

(`in crore)
Percentage change
Industry
GVA at Basic Price in H1
Over previous year H1

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2016-17
2017-18
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing
678162
700007
714253
3.2
2.0
2.mining & quarrying
153508
151853
154877
-1.1
2.0
3.manufacturing
922847
1007877
1048682
9.2
4.0
4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services
113236
121867
130756
7.6
7.3
5.construction
431319
447110
457458
3.7
2.3
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting
941621
1020022
1127282
8.3
10.5
7.financial, insurance, real estate &    professional services
1264877
1367684
1450490
8.1
6.1
8.Public administration, defence & other services
628423
685546
737886
9.1
7.6
GVA at Basic Price
5133993
5501967
5821683
7.2
5.8



STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at 2011-12 prices)

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

(`in crore)
Rates of GDP (%)
Item
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1
in H1

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2016-17
2017-18
1.    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
2937396
3177410
3386459
53.7
54.0
2.    Government Final Consumption Expenditure
613085
714322
787364
12.1
12.5
3.    Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
1698866
1787262
1842717
30.2
29.4
4.    Change in Stocks
135287
145289
150979
2.5
2.4
5.  Valuables
87221
71469
181123
1.2
2.9
6.    Exports
1182494
1203240
1217865
20.3
19.4
7.    Less Imports
1280944
1252514
1383021
21.2
22.0
8.    Discrepancies
122565
74185
92323
1.3
1.5
GDP
5495970
5920663
6275810
100.0
100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

7.7
6.0



STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at current prices)

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

(` in crore)
Percentage change
Industry
GVA at Basic Price in H1
over previous year H1

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2016-17
2017-18
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing
899323
988833
1007164
10.0
1.9
2.mining&quarrying
152150
131325
146930
-13.7
11.9
3.manufacturing
1023812
1119023
1193692
9.3
6.7
4.electricity,gas,watersupply & other utility services
163980
170324
181816
3.9
6.7
5.construction
498129
517056
541967
3.8
4.8
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting
1096416
1189663
1348144
8.5
13.3
7.financial, insurance, real estate &    professional services
1464754
1624089
1765544
10.9
8.7
8.Public administration, defence & other services
816465
928097
1032622
13.7
11.3
GVA at Basic Price
6115029
6668410
7217878
9.0
8.2


STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18
(at current prices)

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

(` in crore)
Rates of GDP (%)
Item
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1
in H1

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2016-17
2017-18
1.    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
3706644
4148798
4531531
57.4
57.3
2.    Government Final Consumption Expenditure
775692
940686
1062634
13.0
13.4
3.    Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
1947914
2034477
2129428
28.1
26.9
4.    Change in Stocks
149704
162691
171554
2.2
2.2
5.  Valuables
95343
82397
186777
1.1
2.4
6.    Exports
1358392
1396144
1441952
19.3
18.2
7.    Less Imports
1553251
1512548
1701298
20.9
21.5
8.    Discrepancies
66313
-21919
83537
-0.3
1.1
GDP
6546752
7230726
7906117
100.0
100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

10.4
9.3


H1: April- September







ANNEXURE
Methodology of Estimation

(1)    Taxes on products at current prices

Taxes on products for compiling GDP include both GST and non-GST revenue.   GST revenue based on GSTR filings as provided by Central Board of Excise and Customs, Department of Revenue, Ministry Finance has been used. This include CGST, SGST, UTGST, IGST (domestic and imports), Cess (Domestic and Imports). The non- GST revenue include Central and State excise duties,  custom duties and sales tax on goods outside the tax base of GST like Crude oil, Petrol, Diesel, ATF& Natural gas and Alcohol for human consumption etc.

(2)    Taxes on products at constant prices
Present methodology of compiling constant price estimates of taxes on products by volume extrapolation has been adopted in line with the methodology prescribed under of System of National accounts, 2008. Volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes.

(3)    Estimating GVA from trade sector.
GVA from Trade sector is estimated using an index of turnover based on Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. In the GSTR-3B returns that are now being filed, total outward taxable supplies is available without HSN/SAC codes. This taxable value of outward supplies is inclusive of both services and goods.  Sales Tax/VAT is imposed on sale or purchase of goods. Till such time the taxable value of goods supplied become available from tax records, a comparable estimate of turn over based on sales tax will have to be estimated.  Following three approaches to project likely sales tax collection were examined.

(a)    Ratio of  Sales tax collected on specific products like  POL  which are outside the tax base of GST and the total sales tax  collected from 2014-15 onwards  were examined.  It was observed that the ratios were by and large stable. Using this relationship, likely sales tax collection for second quarter of 2017-18 was projected.   

(b)    Forecasting quarterly sales tax data for Q2 2017-18  based on  regression of  Sales tax on value of output of commodity producing sectors available from 2011-12 onwards. To account for seasonal fluctuations, seasonal dummy variables were used.

(c)    Estimating sales tax collection by using nominal growth in output of commodity producing sectors that are taxed.


The above three approaches were placed before the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS). The ACNAS recommended using an average of estimates obtained by adopting three approaches. 
(Source: pib.nic.in)

Rajanish Kant गुरुवार, 30 नवंबर 2017